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Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Active · Ends Sep 20, 2026

No probability

73.5%

24h change

-5.00%

Total volume

$391,367

Liquidity

$116,721

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1827.0%73.0%

Outcomes

Yes26.5%
No73.5%

Order book

Yes · 69 levels
BidsSize
  1. 26¢34,826
  2. 25¢7,383
  3. 24¢15,231
  4. 23¢67,521
  5. 22¢47,208
  6. 21¢117
  7. 20¢30
  8. 17¢60
AsksSize
  1. 28¢596
  2. 29¢4,565
  3. 30¢4,849
  4. 31¢870
  5. 32¢1,901
  6. 33¢3,742
  7. 34¢2,934
  8. 35¢2,328

  • sucuk-mit-ei13h ago

    man ich weiß gar nicht was ich hier schreiben soll

    0

  • FabianDE15h ago

    Linke with 22% in new poll

    2

  • German24070621h ago

    I cant buy anything, there is always an error "Order failed" anyone knows why this is happening? Like a day ago everthing was fine

    0

  • ElonSleep1d ago

    olaf will win

    0

  • 0xEB7d609131bDF21dCba6B31dAeB03499A29B859c-17678421696461d ago

    Disgusting leftists. Vote AfD

    1

  • DrOetker1d ago

    THE KNOW-IT-ALLS WILL LOSE. VICTORY WILL BE OURS!

    0

  • DrOetker1d ago

    Last month three Democratic primaries for November's midterm elections ended with surprises. The streak started with a narrow escape on August 4th in Michigan's Senate race. Traders gave Abdul El-Sayed a 98% chance of victory as polls closed, with a 60% probability of winning by at least 15 percentage points. He won, but only by a single point. The following week Francesca Hong, who was trading at around 95% to win the nomination for governor of Wisconsin, narrowly lost to David Crowley. A week later Alexander Vindman, priced at 92% in Florida's Senate primary, lost by a whopping 12 points to Angie Nixon. DON'T FALL FOR IT!

    0

  • manlets2d ago

    AfD?

    0

  • 1.beetern.13d ago

    BIG

    0

  • DrOetker3d ago

    54 cent for a dollar? Sounds pretty good to me

    1

  • sesamff6d ago

    Once again I come to polymarket to collect right wing delusion fee.

    2

  • DrOetker7d ago

    Gays you're making a big mistake

    0

  • TrueDignity7d ago

    CDU is unpopular at the national level and in Berlin. The campaign is focused on rent policy and Die Linke overhauled their communication since 2025 and got popular amongst the youth. And they won the most vote in Berlin in the 2025 federal election. They definitely got the momentum. The antisemitism scandal won't impact them much as this isn't a big issue to their target audience.

    1

  • DrOetker6d ago

    I agree that Linke now is more likely. But the question is not if it's more likely, but how likely. And if you look at the data they are still very close. I think there is big recency bias with the latest state election in Saxony-Anhalt, which had the biggest error there ever was for German opinion research institutes, which are typically very close to the truth. I think if you did a Monte Carlo simulation on the data you see the probability for CDU to be much larger. I don't know what the truth but I'm not cashing out at 20 and if I had Linke shares cashing out for what they are trading now I think you have a pretty good deal

    1

  • TrueDignity5d ago

    Well actually it was in the 2021 election in Saxony-Anhalt where the polling error was the largest. But I like to project into the future and I think Die Linke will gain a few more % as the last polls come out and the undecided make their choice.

    0

  • Lowtaperfade7d ago

    Good job selling CDU btw lava lava I knew you wouldn’t disappoint me

    0

  • Lowtaperfade7d ago

    A woman has only two questions in life: what to wear and how to not be as retarded as DrOetker that loves glazing CDU for no fucking reason

    0

  • DrOetker7d ago

    type "sonntagsfrage Berlin" into google and get a brain

    0

  • DrOetker7d ago

    This market is inefficiencymaxxing. Just look at the pools

    0

  • Lowtaperfade7d ago

    Yeah lemme go for a swim in the pools too retard

    0

  • DrOetker2d ago

    me no hablo ingles

    0

  • DrOetker8d ago

    GET MY SHARES BACK UP!!!

    0

  • Lowtaperfade9d ago

    Lava lava I respect you a lot but I’m afraid on this one I can’t agree with you

    0

  • DrOetker9d ago

    The ONLY REASON CDU got less than it was polling at is TACTICAL VOTING FOR GREENS, SPD AND BSW to KEEP THEM ABOVE THE 5% THRESHOLD and PREVENT AFD FROM GAINING AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY, because even some East Germans have what you call “A BRAIN”. This is obviously NOT APPLICABLE TO BERLIN, where AfD is polling at 17%. But for SMALL-BRAINED AMERICANS, let’s assume Saxony-Anhalt is applicable to Berlin: CDU was polling at 22% and got 17.2%, i.e. 21.82% LESS. LINKE was polling at 13% and got 8.6%, i.e. 33.85% LESS. So even accepting the wrong premise that Saxony-Anhalt translates to Berlin FAVORS CDU RELATIVE TO LINKE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

    0

  • Lowtaperfade9d ago

    So much text that says so little.

    0

  • DrOetker9d ago

    Buy more!

    0

  • Lowtaperfade9d ago

    Btw consider where the lost votes you mentioned transfer

    0

  • Lowtaperfade9d ago

    Plenty of liquidity for you, eat your fill

    0

  • Lowtaperfade9d ago

    retard

    0

  • DrOetker15d ago

    Get CDU to 60. The MAUERSCHÜTZENPARTEI is not winning this!

    0

Rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Market opened Dec 1, 2025, 8:47 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:06 PM

Market data

24h volume

$24,744

1 week volume

$101,314

1 month volume

$211,021

1 year volume

$391,326

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

94.8%

1h change

-1.00%

1 week change

+6.00%

1 month change

-6.50%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x71a21eab87c301a53f2f33fad4dca7a1e7da8911b847c82ca37ed49d859a17a0
Question ID:
0xb45c8ecc624e90bc1921f82042c443136c168e950129a8309d1926e4bbf51d00

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?" prediction market?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

What are the current odds?

Yes at 26.5%, No at 73.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$391,367 in total volume, with $24,744 in the last 24 hours and $116,721 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Sep 20, 2026. The market opened on Dec 2, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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