Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Active · Ends Apr 30, 2027

No probability

99.9%

24h change

+0.05%

Total volume

$6.4M

Liquidity

$223,624

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes0.1%

No99.9%

PainChoco2d ago
Il y a plusieurs biais évidents: - Lisnar est sur-représenté à cause de l'opinion des holders de crypto - Faure a des chances de gagner la primaire car le PS veut s'allier à LFI au second tour et G un boulet pour ça. Du coup il passerait immédiatement à 3-4%, ce qui fait que la côté a 1/500 est un bon bet sur la primaire, car il prendra x20 immédiatement.
2
Hot-Skull1d ago
Je te le souhaite
0
grosprouteur1d ago
Même MLP est surreprésentée : il n'est pas certain que le RN parvienne à financer sa campagne auprès des banques compte tenu de son niveau d'endettement. On pourrait par ailleurs assister à une dispersion du vote d'extrême droite entre MLP, Bardella (s'il présente sa candidature de manière indépendante) et Sarah Knafo.
2
DFK8h ago
🤣
0
askolein4h ago
Pas compris le rapport avec Lisnard et la Crypto. jamais vu ou lu un seul truc à ce sujet
0
mcpetrus2d ago
Market participants are cautious regarding Le Pen because current polls indicate that, in a runoff between Philippe and Le Pen, 60% of the left-wing camp—and 40% of the moderate-left camp—would not turn out to vote. However, that situation will definitely not remain the same by the time the election takes place.
0
Poivre2d ago
Lisnard à 8% de chance de gagner alors qu'il pèse 2% dans les sondages c'est délirant
4
Giorgio22d ago
Honestly wondering why MLP is so cheap
0
UhhMee2d ago
because she will not win.
3
PubgWithoutSaving3d ago
retards pumping lisnard LMAO
2
Hot-Skull3d ago
parle français
0
PubgWithoutSaving3d ago
c'est un site anglophone tdq
0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-17613204845182d ago
mdrr retards prend 7% d'intéret sur 300€ respecte toi
0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-17613204845182d ago
meme pas sur 200*
0
PubgWithoutSaving2d ago
tu connais le concept de cout d'opportunité tdq ?
0
askolein4h ago
ouai mais il peut taper 15%
0
iForgor4d ago
Ugh too far away
0
Ganngann4d ago
Coalition arithmetic could overpower individual charisma
0
Escanpadex5d ago
Lisnard s'envole !
2
LiquidatedDegen6d ago
Hi guys my favorite food is cheeseburger and french fries.
4
Giorgio23d ago
In France we say smash burger bro
1
LiquidatedDegen3d ago
How do I order cheeseburger and fries in French?
1
Hot-Skull7d ago
Pour les fans de Lisnard, il y a aussi ce marché : https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot/will-david-lisnard-be-on-the-ballot-for-the-2027-french-presidential-election
0
next07d ago
Lisnard is so back
0
UhhMee6d ago
Lisnard n'a litteralement AUCUNE chance de gagner la Présidentielle. Vraiment aucune.
3
Athasantay7d ago
tic tac lisnard is coming back.. again
0
PappyB9d ago
C'est quand que l'équipe de modération fait le ménage sur ce market et supprime tous les candidats qui n'ont aucune chance ? Il y a d'autres candidats qui méritent au contraire d'être rajoutés ! Où sont Florian Philippot, François Asselineau, Christine Lagarde ? N'hésitez pas à leur demander à l'adresse
1
Hot-Skull8d ago
ll y est deja asselineau n'hésite pas a faire monter la cote
2
PappyB9d ago
Please add Lagarde !! There are candidates here with no chance whatsoever to ever be elected!
2
0x401615c0b1c3019C300F652ef7FAb8ce9c0b7036-17685682806549d ago
Vous vous souvenez de Polite-Humour/DominiqueStraussKahn, le fanboy de Mélenchon qui comptait hold ses 8000 shares jusqu'à son élection ? Ca yest il a vendu 1/4 de sa position à 14 cents 😂
1
Hamapo12d ago
Ou est sylvain durrif ? encore un complot des Illuminati reptiliens !
3
0xE24dFF13955893d43052169B2A8Fa30979d19633-177352525665114d ago
La possibilité de la candidature de Sarah knafo devient très sérieuse avec la sortie de son livre qui cartonne. Ce n'est plus qu'un secret de polichinelle. Et si c'est knafo a la place de Zemmour pour reconquête, ça change la donne
0
UhhMee13d ago
Non ça ne changera aucune donne. Aucun parti de droite ne gagnera, cest pourtant evident.
0
MoonShootBets9d ago
Pourquoi Zemmour terminerait sa carrière médiatique?
0
AlcazarViala14d ago
Quand est-ce que Natacha Polony sera rajoutée ?
3
0xEB7d609131bDF21dCba6B31dAeB03499A29B859c-176784216964615d ago
Vote for Melenchon! Palestine first 🇵🇸
2
snimuslivo4ki15d ago
new day new bet
0

Rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Market opened Nov 12, 2025, 8:05 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$19,547

1 week volume

$416,601

1 month volume

$1M

1 year volume

$6.4M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.1%

1h change

—

1 week change

+0.10%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0x34ed4ad7a7825f168e1084f53e8f60a161579d783b2740e50aa52f710925a136
Question ID:: 0xdb7fd06931d5f8cec574bc6423d97f0c3a77e814e9b45119084f90e5a1632211

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?" prediction market?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.1%, No at 99.9% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$6.4M in total volume, with $19,547 in the last 24 hours and $223,624 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Apr 30, 2027. The market opened on Nov 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.