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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

75.5%

24h change

+5.00%

Total volume

$1.5M

Liquidity

$94,545

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1824.5%75.5%

Outcomes

Yes24.5%
No75.5%

Order book

Yes · 62 levels
BidsSize
  1. 24¢2,652
  2. 23¢6,013
  3. 22¢20,331
  4. 21¢16,583
  5. 20¢19,289
  6. 19¢4,047
  7. 18¢1,331
  8. 17¢9,327
AsksSize
  1. 25¢2,693
  2. 26¢5,189
  3. 27¢18,559
  4. 28¢13,975
  5. 29¢4,821
  6. 30¢6,241
  7. 31¢450
  8. 32¢4,232

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Market opened Nov 4, 2025, 10:21 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$74,202

1 week volume

$410,890

1 month volume

$1M

1 year volume

$1.5M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

93.9%

1h change

—

1 week change

+8.00%

1 month change

+7.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x176e84015b1cc54d470836ef1d8a60753e17fa232d9b55e9aa8dde580d03f436
Question ID:
0x8be076b658c2c8853fb6325d7887e1636aa82b383093db097122fbbe50aa421d

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 24.5%, No at 75.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.5M in total volume, with $74,202 in the last 24 hours and $94,545 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Nov 5, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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