Back to markets

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Active · Ends Oct 10, 2026

No probability

97.8%

24h change

-0.20%

Total volume

$4.8M

Liquidity

$400,500

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 182.3%97.8%

Outcomes

Yes2.3%
No97.8%

Order book

Yes · 150 levels
BidsSize
  1. 2¢809
  2. 2¢298
  3. 2¢1,012
  4. 2¢1,456
  5. 2¢8,890
  6. 2¢13,540
  7. 2¢938
  8. 1¢107
AsksSize
  1. 2¢561
  2. 3¢500
  3. 3¢3,717
  4. 3¢1,893
  5. 3¢4,444
  6. 4¢3,232
  7. 4¢2,222
  8. 4¢3,734

  • jjjjok66662d ago

    Donny pls finish war in Ukraine and get your prize, thx

    0

  • jjjjok66662d ago

    Donny pls finish war in Ukraine and get your Nobel prize, thx

    0

  • 0x2c1060B1548ab350ee41899F21D6E17f77c9336c-17448130279243d ago

    Where is benjamin netanyahu?

    0

  • TheDao12d ago

    They need to add Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), They consistently top shortlist evaluations by experts like the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), which closely tracks Nobel trends...

    2

  • maybebrian19d ago

    How do we add options to this? My frontrunners arent even on here

    2

  • GenaTheBondKilIer13d ago

    Discord

    0

  • sbolt61251mo ago

    omg, nobody please

    0

  • Thedevilwearsprada1mo ago

    Bibi lmao

    2

  • 8908DFG1mo ago

    Charlie Kirk

    2

  • DontTrustMe1mo ago

    But we are Charlie Kirk. So all of us? 🫨

    0

  • vc789bjn1mo ago

    hould add the

    0

  • 567GHJ81mo ago

    ts a shame

    0

  • 890BHJ32mo ago

    nuo beri er

    0

  • cvbn092mo ago

    xijinping

    0

  • ZnotluvuiSamez2mo ago

    🦩🦩🦩

    0

  • yihib92mo ago

    go d

    0

  • Chococremeux2mo ago

    its a shame that F. Albanese is being snubbed over trump, bibi or xi

    0

  • .NSR2mo ago

    C’mon Charlie Kirk , what is wrong with PolyM ?

    0

  • Hodetovervann3mo ago

    They should add the primeminister of Pakistan as a bet.

    6

  • Orca13mo ago

    Why is Zelenskyy so high? What has he done for peace? He is doing a very good job at defending his country but this isn't the best defender prize, it's a peace prize.

    1

  • BrumelCompanyLTD3mo ago

    Greta, God bless you

    1

  • WageringGrandma3mo ago

    You are tripping.

    0

  • BrumelCompanyLTD3mo ago

    comeee on

    0

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Market opened Oct 15, 2025, 9:00 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$36,472

1 week volume

$293,328

1 month volume

$441,193

1 year volume

$4.8M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

+0.70%

1 month change

-0.20%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x962e5b226a77266ab429029ee04665e8fcfeb10b91af593786ceab871d2e945f
Question ID:
0x09139fb03e823bc6b7006c27da5604e8a4fa14f03bc8d8e7a9cf40502302bf00

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 2.3%, No at 97.8% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$4.8M in total volume, with $36,472 in the last 24 hours and $400,500 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 10, 2026. The market opened on Oct 16, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

Related markets