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Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 3, 2026

Yes probability

94.8%

24h change

-1.20%

Total volume

$2M

Liquidity

$77,049

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1894.8%5.3%

Outcomes

Yes94.8%
No5.3%

Order book

Yes · 132 levels
BidsSize
  1. 95¢430
  2. 94¢5
  3. 94¢9
  4. 94¢6
  5. 93¢141
  6. 93¢2,499
  7. 93¢51
  8. 93¢1,098
AsksSize
  1. 95¢566
  2. 95¢10
  3. 95¢28
  4. 95¢124
  5. 96¢1,837
  6. 96¢200
  7. 96¢281
  8. 96¢1,318
  • coinlists211mo ago

    where is Xander

    0

  • NoSteinNoGate2mo ago

    Why was the likely winner at almost 0% at one point?

    0

  • shieldsnorma7072mo ago

    omg, 90% already

    0

  • bananavomBa7171mo ago

    100prc is near

    0

  • Mikaelo3mo ago

    Easiest 11c ever

    0

  • 0x44vanz3mo ago

    very strange. do people think a trump repub can win cal? lol

    2

  • NixNov0083mo ago

    California will always be Blue

    0

  • Huskybee3mo ago

    Porter and Caruso look like the real two horse race here

    0

  • zepon3mo ago

    xavious gonna be saviour

    0

  • NixNov0083mo ago

    Why the hell that billionaires Steyer is at 21% ahead of Hilton. He won't even win the primary.

    0

  • MugenX3mo ago

    Hilton is in the lead though so this doesn't make sense

    1

  • Loggerhead3mo ago

    ikr

    0

  • DonaldTrumpito3mo ago

    It does make sense when you realize Becerra will most likely absorb many of Steyer’s vote in the actual election.

    1

  • iSELLHELLACRACK3mo ago

    perhaps but the split should be closer to 50/50 rather than 90/10

    1

  • AnEggplant3mo ago

    We so appreciate your donation

    0

  • NixNov0083mo ago

    There is one thing You must learn. California will always be blue!

    0

  • iSELLHELLACRACK2mo ago

    You’re in a cult

    0

  • dakotafox983mo ago

    who is who

    0

  • facekunal3mo ago

    interesting

    0

  • trafefair3mo ago

    The consensus view seems overconfident on this one

    0

  • BrumelCompanyLTD3mo ago

    time to voteee😏

    2

  • PeterMagyar3mo ago

    Berkeley/IGS poll is coming soon

    0

  • PeterMagyar3mo ago

    Gonna come out after memorial day

    0

  • desfero4mo ago

    is this still live?

    0

  • LiquidatedDegen4mo ago

    As long as Becerra doesn't mess up tonight's debate, it'll be #BecerraEra

    1

  • PeterMagyar4mo ago

    Becerra 20% Steyer 19% Hilton 18% Porter 13% Bianco 12% Mahan 9% Emerson #A - LV - 5/10

    2

  • MattC1234mo ago

    When are we going to get a independent poll that is not rigged and funded by the DNC does anyone know?

    1

  • PeterMagyar4mo ago

    Next week probably, and then a swarm of them the week after

    1

  • PeterMagyar4mo ago

    Emerson came out (A rating) : Becerra 20% Steyer 19% Hilton 18% Porter 13% Bianco 12% Mahan 9% Emerson #A - LV - 5/10

    0

  • MattC1234mo ago

    Yeah, that’s what I suspected the Democratic centrist establishment polls were rigged against Steyer and artificially boosting Becerra, it’s basically a neck and neck race at this point between Steyer and Becerra.

    2

  • bernardbulletin4mo ago

    Nice,

    1

  • PaulRevere4mo ago

    Nevada, Texas, Florida, etc thank California for all the wealth fleeing California’s Democratic monopoly. Double down and Keep it up Californians!

    1

  • 0xfb1Cce32f0ef66F46f09367d596455946C4Ed115-17770145110594mo ago

    So far, four new polls have tested the California governor’s race. Here’s what to make of them: YouGov/CBS News: Strongest pollster in the field, though not the newest. Steyer at 15% and Becerra at 13%. SurveyUSA: Credible pollster and the best recent public test. Steyer at 18% and Becerra at 10%. Evitarius: Sponsored by the CA Democratic Party and C-rated, so treat it cautiously. Becerra at 18% and Steyer at 12%. Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies: Most politically suspect poll. Sponsored by California Is Not For Sale, an anti-Steyer group. Becerra at 24% and Steyer at 15%.

    1

Rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Market opened Oct 9, 2025, 7:56 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$72,746

1 week volume

$88,989

1 month volume

$182,797

1 year volume

$2M

Spread

0.50%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

83.3%

1h change

1 week change

-0.60%

1 month change

-0.15%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0xa5d79e71e66c9fe122f8b8b3ca6ab7a0e3048bd8508f130746944e92ed79ddf3
Question ID:
0x0b6235b08df5cb142c191a770c6fd31e97facff05fb7f56c572a435bf73b7c05

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 94.8%, No at 5.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2M in total volume, with $72,746 in the last 24 hours and $77,049 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 3, 2026. The market opened on Oct 9, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.