
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Active · Ends Oct 31, 2026
No probability
95.5%
24h change
—
Total volume
$1.9M
Liquidity
$130,560
Price history
Outcomes
Order book
Yes · 89 levels
- 4¢40,308
- 3¢25,538
- 2¢29,521
- 1¢39,215
- 5¢2,519
- 6¢32,582
- 7¢8,714
- 8¢9,569
- 9¢3,822
- 10¢2,939
- 11¢2,310
- 12¢2,429
Neymarjr106721h ago
People who bet “yes” on Harry Kane at odds above 50 have a serious problem—his actual chances are much lower. You might as well bet “no” or on other outsiders like Mbappé, Dembélé, or Kvara (or Yamal, but in my opinion, his impact during the World Cup was far too limited for a Ballon d’Or).
2
RYUrkitt15h ago
Messi impact in 2010 was non existent and he won it because of an overall season. Kane was the most consistent throughout the whole season
0

MegaTheGabriel1d ago
why messi
0
marius07941d ago
watch the wc
1

MegaTheGabriel36m ago
nosense
0

horriblebear23m ago
Did you watch WC 26?
0
AmmarXzio2d ago
Told dumbass lamine will win or chances will increase
0

TimeTraveler2d ago
What if Harry Kane's PR campaign literally just chose to pump a few hundred K into the betting markets very early on before anyone else to set the narrative that any change from now is just due to other PR campaigns.
1

TimeTraveler2d ago
This also explains why the buying liquidity suddenly dried up a while ago.
0

milkthedip2d ago
He's been the favourite in the betting houses as well since the world cup. Also I might be wrong, but I don't think kane has a PR campaing haha
0

TimeTraveler2d ago
Because bookmakers let liquidity chase the odds, they saw the incoming liquidity after the WC and heavily raised the odds, why sell your odds for cheap when you can sell them expensive?
0

horriblebear22m ago
71 Goal in a year is the best PR campaign
0
srysak2d ago
Fabian Ruiz only one to win World cup, Champions'league and national league
1

badtothebone4302d ago
save ur money while u still can
3

crypto-basenji9h ago
0
0
0x8AA92Da7f6A2abE2763BB1a0424e59F3346dcC4A-17793511319182d ago
Lionel Messi Will win this year.
1
0VLYp3d ago
Yamal is just PR. Has done nothing to win it. Not top scorrer, not top assister, no show in the world cup. What are we doing here? This prize has never gone to suchlackluster performance.
3

badtothebone4302d ago
😂😂😂
0

sciuboi3d ago
Kane going to 40 soon
1

GoldenLilies3d ago
Yamal was second last year. You reckon he could win it now?
0

milkthedip3d ago
Would be a great entry
0

badtothebone4302d ago
yamal pr working OT now
0

TimeTraveler3d ago
So I guess the Harry Kane liquidity depletion took even less than 2 days.
2

TimeTraveler4d ago
At this rate the buywalls for Harry Kane will be gone in about 2 days.
1

GoldenLilies4d ago
Do you mean that holders will do massive sells and his % will drop hard?
0

TimeTraveler3d ago
I ment that even without massive sells it will go down since price stability in combination with the negative risk bots requires buying liquidity.
0

junif4d ago
Mbappe
0
Rvd54615d ago
Mbappe has not chance lmao
1
dungproht5d ago
mbappe's gonna win it
0

Rinzooffical5d ago
mbabbe
0

cryptobro19856d ago
I bet on Mbappe. Top striker .
0
Crowketman6d ago
Harry
1
AmmarXzio7d ago
It's either mbappe or lamine they always rob english players+ who plays in Germany
0

TimeTraveler7d ago
I guess it's also simply a matter of liquidity, when yupiii is done selling his No's the buying liquidity for Kane will plumett. Next to that is that there are simply a few semi-inactive whales with a lot of Kane shares who seem to be holding long term, but if one of those decides to sell the liquidity will also be depleted.
2
0x69455573Dc559Ef89d088de39288Dc7977902E24-17838697833245d ago
Bro i need to talk to you
0

crypto-basenji7d ago
WTF is wrong with you pricing Kane at >60¢? so logic is: it will be celebrated at London, then they will give it to an english player?
1
0xcED1992C3273B3f12474e4962147a4a6ec91C969-17879610510987d ago
Enjoy your losses,he will win it,scored 73 goals last season
0
kopeikin18487d ago
in the farmers league
0
0xcED1992C3273B3f12474e4962147a4a6ec91C969-17879610510987d ago
And the Champions League,the World Cup etc
0

KenanEvren8d ago
Why is Harry Kane so high? Makes no sense.
3

badtothebone4302d ago
I mean he did beat prime cr7s goal tally among other things, I'm not shocked he the favourite but I expect yamal and mbappe to move closer
1
Rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Market opened Sep 22, 2025, 9:37 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM
Market data
24h volume
$83,729
1 week volume
$264,312
1 month volume
$810,031
1 year volume
$1.9M
Spread
1.00%
Min order
5
Tick size
0.01
Competitiveness
82.8%
1h change
—
1 week change
-2.00%
1 month change
-5.00%
Negative risk
Yes
- Condition ID:
- 0x30f729ef18553d8956bfd7ae7a1e96dbad07e2476160239b23ec10e6cdc5f01b
- Question ID:
- 0x178e5d521fe40d169fbd095a16e69d08c294b1f6de6c38dfcdeeee0c66990c1a
Frequently asked questions
What is the "Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" prediction market?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
What are the current odds?
Yes at 4.5%, No at 95.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.
How much trading activity has this market generated?
$1.9M in total volume, with $83,729 in the last 24 hours and $130,560 of liquidity currently available.
When does this market close?
Trading runs until Oct 31, 2026. The market opened on Sep 22, 2025.
How do I trade this market?
Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.
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