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Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Active · Ends Oct 31, 2026

No probability

91.3%

24h change

-2.15%

Total volume

$2.4M

Liquidity

$112,251

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 188.6%91.3%

Outcomes

Yes8.6%
No91.3%

Order book

Yes · 250 levels
BidsSize
  1. 9¢1,390
  2. 9¢253
  3. 8¢586
  4. 8¢155
  5. 8¢40
  6. 8¢2,225
  7. 8¢79
  8. 8¢111
AsksSize
  1. 9¢1,459
  2. 9¢24
  3. 9¢204
  4. 9¢172
  5. 9¢16,947
  6. 9¢1,085
  7. 9¢329
  8. 10¢250
  • Neymarjr106721h ago

    People who bet “yes” on Harry Kane at odds above 50 have a serious problem—his actual chances are much lower. You might as well bet “no” or on other outsiders like Mbappé, Dembélé, or Kvara (or Yamal, but in my opinion, his impact during the World Cup was far too limited for a Ballon d’Or).

    2

  • RYUrkitt15h ago

    Messi impact in 2010 was non existent and he won it because of an overall season. Kane was the most consistent throughout the whole season

    0

  • MegaTheGabriel1d ago

    why messi

    0

  • marius07941d ago

    watch the wc

    1

  • MegaTheGabriel35m ago

    nosense

    0

  • horriblebear23m ago

    Did you watch WC 26?

    0

  • AmmarXzio2d ago

    Told dumbass lamine will win or chances will increase

    0

  • TimeTraveler2d ago

    What if Harry Kane's PR campaign literally just chose to pump a few hundred K into the betting markets very early on before anyone else to set the narrative that any change from now is just due to other PR campaigns.

    1

  • TimeTraveler2d ago

    This also explains why the buying liquidity suddenly dried up a while ago.

    0

  • milkthedip2d ago

    He's been the favourite in the betting houses as well since the world cup. Also I might be wrong, but I don't think kane has a PR campaing haha

    0

  • TimeTraveler2d ago

    Because bookmakers let liquidity chase the odds, they saw the incoming liquidity after the WC and heavily raised the odds, why sell your odds for cheap when you can sell them expensive?

    0

  • horriblebear22m ago

    71 Goal in a year is the best PR campaign

    0

  • srysak2d ago

    Fabian Ruiz only one to win World cup, Champions'league and national league

    1

  • badtothebone4302d ago

    save ur money while u still can

    3

  • crypto-basenji9h ago

    0

    0

  • 0x8AA92Da7f6A2abE2763BB1a0424e59F3346dcC4A-17793511319182d ago

    Lionel Messi Will win this year.

    1

  • 0VLYp3d ago

    Yamal is just PR. Has done nothing to win it. Not top scorrer, not top assister, no show in the world cup. What are we doing here? This prize has never gone to suchlackluster performance.

    3

  • badtothebone4302d ago

    😂😂😂

    0

  • sciuboi3d ago

    Kane going to 40 soon

    1

  • GoldenLilies3d ago

    Yamal was second last year. You reckon he could win it now?

    0

  • milkthedip3d ago

    Would be a great entry

    0

  • badtothebone4302d ago

    yamal pr working OT now

    0

  • TimeTraveler3d ago

    So I guess the Harry Kane liquidity depletion took even less than 2 days.

    2

  • TimeTraveler4d ago

    At this rate the buywalls for Harry Kane will be gone in about 2 days.

    1

  • GoldenLilies4d ago

    Do you mean that holders will do massive sells and his % will drop hard?

    0

  • TimeTraveler3d ago

    I ment that even without massive sells it will go down since price stability in combination with the negative risk bots requires buying liquidity.

    0

  • junif4d ago

    Mbappe

    0

  • Rvd54615d ago

    Mbappe has not chance lmao

    1

  • dungproht5d ago

    mbappe's gonna win it

    0

  • Rinzooffical5d ago

    mbabbe

    0

  • cryptobro19856d ago

    I bet on Mbappe. Top striker .

    0

  • Crowketman6d ago

    Harry

    1

  • AmmarXzio7d ago

    It's either mbappe or lamine they always rob english players+ who plays in Germany

    0

  • TimeTraveler7d ago

    I guess it's also simply a matter of liquidity, when yupiii is done selling his No's the buying liquidity for Kane will plumett. Next to that is that there are simply a few semi-inactive whales with a lot of Kane shares who seem to be holding long term, but if one of those decides to sell the liquidity will also be depleted.

    2

  • 0x69455573Dc559Ef89d088de39288Dc7977902E24-17838697833245d ago

    Bro i need to talk to you

    0

  • crypto-basenji7d ago

    WTF is wrong with you pricing Kane at >60¢? so logic is: it will be celebrated at London, then they will give it to an english player?

    1

  • 0xcED1992C3273B3f12474e4962147a4a6ec91C969-17879610510987d ago

    Enjoy your losses,he will win it,scored 73 goals last season

    0

  • kopeikin18487d ago

    in the farmers league

    0

  • 0xcED1992C3273B3f12474e4962147a4a6ec91C969-17879610510987d ago

    And the Champions League,the World Cup etc

    0

  • KenanEvren8d ago

    Why is Harry Kane so high? Makes no sense.

    3

  • badtothebone4302d ago

    I mean he did beat prime cr7s goal tally among other things, I'm not shocked he the favourite but I expect yamal and mbappe to move closer

    1

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Market opened Sep 22, 2025, 9:37 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:08 PM

Market data

24h volume

$70,258

1 week volume

$210,637

1 month volume

$767,625

1 year volume

$2.4M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

85.4%

1h change

1 week change

-1.20%

1 month change

+1.55%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x87091dc5932f015d80c40e71e47cb043c3f8b6098484eb5bc3943cf35ee9afc1
Question ID:
0x178e5d521fe40d169fbd095a16e69d08c294b1f6de6c38dfcdeeee0c66990c00

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 8.6%, No at 91.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2.4M in total volume, with $70,258 in the last 24 hours and $112,251 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 31, 2026. The market opened on Sep 22, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.