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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

94.0%

24h change

+1.50%

Total volume

$76,674

Liquidity

$42,311

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 15Sep 17Sep 186.0%94.0%

Outcomes

Yes6.0%
No94.0%

Order book

Yes · 40 levels
BidsSize
  1. 5¢27
  2. 4¢10,473
  3. 3¢6,151
  4. 2¢21,424
  5. 1¢16,762
AsksSize
  1. 7¢6,397
  2. 8¢2,096
  3. 9¢1,935
  4. 10¢5,243
  5. 11¢1,586
  6. 29¢532
  7. 30¢2,367
  8. 33¢424

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Market opened Sep 15, 2026, 8:35 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$44,218

1 week volume

$76,674

1 month volume

$76,674

1 year volume

$76,674

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

83.8%

1h change

-0.50%

1 week change

—

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x5c881188a151876e13d8bf67c36c03e34ce851bd5fbc2163288e9e45b93ef46c
Question ID:
0x4bddceedd86cd3558d2d4944fe1fe05a5628f9e0503f9537f6d257bca5412264

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 6.0%, No at 94.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$76,674 in total volume, with $44,218 in the last 24 hours and $42,311 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Sep 15, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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