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Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

Yes probability

53.5%

24h change

-14.00%

Total volume

$285,303

Liquidity

$60,071

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12Sep 15Sep 1853.0%46.5%

Outcomes

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Order book

Yes · 96 levels
BidsSize
  1. 53¢30
  2. 52¢557
  3. 51¢1,573
  4. 50¢1,229
  5. 49¢135
  6. 48¢30
  7. 47¢1,310
  8. 46¢1,635
AsksSize
  1. 54¢100
  2. 55¢49
  3. 56¢1,017
  4. 57¢744
  5. 58¢700
  6. 59¢201
  7. 60¢854
  8. 61¢589
  • ArthurGreen23m ago

    Half of that compound lies in ashes. what do you expect?

    0

  • Avitz3344m ago

    No oil soup for you

    0

  • nellojello13h ago

    so both 48-inch and 56-inch lines use the same destroyed pump station. And you say rebuild in a couple of days. Only possible if there is a bypass value to open and enough pressure from a upstream pump station.

    2

  • gum12312h ago

    Wrong

    0

  • 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d6h ago

    Who cares? It's easy to repair infrastructure in the desert during the summer months.

    0

  • iNeedMoreDollars1h ago

    with ballistic missiles falling around you at mach 5 speed

    0

  • ArthurGreen1h ago

    based

    0

  • Konfucious1h ago

    It's gonna get partially fixed next week

    0

  • adasol20h ago

    BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has directly requested a two-week ceasefire with Yemen's Houthis through Oman as its East-West pipeline lies damaged and repair timelines remain unclear, a senior source told Al Mayadeen. The request comes after Houthi forces overran the entire Red Sea coast and captured Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb, routing Saudi-backed troops and leaving Saudi oil exports exposed. The pipeline shutdown has cut Riyadh's only route around the closed Strait of Hormuz

    0

  • adasol20h ago

    UNTIL NOW, repair timeline remain unclear !!!

    0

  • adasol23h ago

    tik tok ...

    0

  • scott4511d ago

    A problem with the rules is that the Saudis can say that the line is open or partially open, even if it isn't, and it still resolves to YES.

    0

  • adasol1d ago

    except they have no motivation to do that. The only reason you do it is that you want to manipulate the oil price. Saudi Arabia has already exported a significant lesser amount of oil than before the conflict. If the oil price is down, their main export revenue will be hit both by quantity and price

    3

  • thevotwddweller16h ago

    Plus, if they announce it, they will be inviting further attacks. They'd better stay low-key. Only ones who benefit from prematurely announcing are the US side, and their announcement doesn't qualify.

    0

  • adasol1d ago

    Two Saudi East-West pipeline stations damaged in drone attack Two pumping stations serving Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West Pipeline were damaged in last week’s drone attack, with the timeline for repairs unclear, Reuters reported, citing three oil and security sources. The 1,200-km pipeline, operated by Saudi Aramco, temporarily shut down on Friday after an attack that Saudi officials said involved drones coming from Iraq. Saudi Aramco and the Saudi government did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment. (This means even Saudi government is not sure when they can fix the pipeline)

    1

  • WarriorPooh1d ago

    within days baby

    1

  • Avitz331d ago

    Nope

    0

  • WarriorPooh1d ago

    you're going to lose lol

    1

  • Avitz331d ago

    I’ll see you here after the next Houthi drone attack. Sell while you’re in a profit 😅

    0

  • Dettl4ff2d ago

    Easy money.

    0

  • 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d3d ago

    More satellite imagery became available. The pipeline was hit in multiple previously unreported spots.

    0

  • adasol4d ago

    BREAKING: Repairs to Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline will take far longer than a month due to a lack of spare parts, with the pumping infrastructure catastrophically damaged and at least 8 locations on the pipe hit, per initial reports citing sources inside Saudi Arabia. That leaves Saudi Arabia set to run out of crude oil stocks for export within five to seven days, taking around 4 million barrels per day, ~4% of global supply, off the market, per three industry sources to Reuters. Some repaired points were struck again, using up the spares and undoing the work. Yanbu has about a week of stocks left on the kingdom's only export route that does not pass through Hormuz.

    0

  • 0xD864bfD303B33E7C500e5A37f6210BD4C82578c7-17785291601223d ago

    It may partially open before that ... and the world really wants it to!

    1

  • ithinkthisisgod4d ago

    yohooohohooooo

    0

Rules

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.

Market opened Sep 11, 2026, 11:26 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$35,340

1 week volume

$285,303

1 month volume

$285,303

1 year volume

$285,303

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

99.9%

1h change

-4.00%

1 week change

1 month change

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x2a25f3fd54fd0b18fee936f7f6b701e119c86f08f6d2a621b995193851014fb3
Question ID:
0xcaa6a23df84517832ea9d4c0b676cb3866555d2f64cdc64b4f9eab605efe5d5e

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?" prediction market?

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 53.5%, No at 46.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$285,303 in total volume, with $35,340 in the last 24 hours and $60,071 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Sep 11, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.