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Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes probability

84.5%

24h change

+9.00%

Total volume

$54,012

Liquidity

$7,212

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1884.5%15.5%

Outcomes

Yes84.5%
No15.5%

Order book

Yes · 43 levels
BidsSize
  1. 84¢250
  2. 83¢816
  3. 82¢867
  4. 81¢452
  5. 79¢300
  6. 78¢120
  7. 76¢321
  8. 75¢1,605
AsksSize
  1. 85¢490
  2. 86¢482
  3. 87¢663
  4. 88¢533
  5. 89¢435
  6. 90¢381
  7. 91¢56
  8. 93¢1,431

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Sep 8, 2026, 7:28 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$13,842

1 week volume

$26,441

1 month volume

$54,012

1 year volume

$54,012

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

89.4%

1h change

+1.00%

1 week change

-4.00%

1 month change

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x3a0303adb9831302d2ebb6a0f77bfea947157ddffbf09fdebdf3ae50311e5b6e
Question ID:
0x4fbb38602cf12609788d85d5e865bd3fdac32bd72afdb76c3fddb5e193c19d79

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 84.5%, No at 15.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$54,012 in total volume, with $13,842 in the last 24 hours and $7,212 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2028. The market opened on Sep 8, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.