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Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?

Active · Ends Oct 18, 2026

No probability

84.0%

24h change

-59.50%

Total volume

$27,791

Liquidity

$378

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1816.0%84.0%

Outcomes

Yes16.0%
No84.0%

Order book

Yes · 23 levels
BidsSize
  1. 14¢242
  2. 13¢50
  3. 11¢20
  4. 10¢88
  5. 7¢5
  6. 6¢91
  7. 5¢671
  8. 4¢632
AsksSize
  1. 18¢64
  2. 27¢10
  3. 28¢11
  4. 29¢23
  5. 78¢82
  6. 81¢44
  7. 82¢135
  8. 83¢339
  • trancephorm17h ago

    What does it mean "between", does it include 18th of Sept?

    0

  • Waterfall16h ago

    It does, 33 hours left or so

    0

  • trancephorm47m ago

    Is that some site-wide rule. It is not clerly stated in the bet itself, that's why I ask.

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Sep 4, 2026, 12:18 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$5,772

1 week volume

$25,337

1 month volume

$27,791

1 year volume

$27,791

Spread

4.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

89.6%

1h change

+1.00%

1 week change

-65.00%

1 month change

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x4c86ed9f12b72660933638d90c146e99c8b98bec765cfa4fea9bc2a28e1a68c0
Question ID:
0x33709fd49bbae2121fe4e30a7f65345166d6a49741acaa0a9c9fd815473c2b87

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 16.0%, No at 84.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$27,791 in total volume, with $5,772 in the last 24 hours and $378 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 18, 2026. The market opened on Sep 4, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.