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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?

Active · Ends Sep 30, 2026

No probability

89.0%

24h change

+3.40%

Total volume

$17,717

Liquidity

$984

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1811.0%89.0%

Outcomes

Yes11.0%
No89.0%

Order book

Yes · 54 levels
BidsSize
  1. 11¢287
  2. 11¢20
  3. 10¢171
  4. 10¢650
  5. 10¢200
  6. 9¢16
  7. 9¢82
  8. 9¢56
AsksSize
  1. 11¢11
  2. 12¢16
  3. 12¢150
  4. 12¢27
  5. 12¢50
  6. 12¢100
  7. 13¢64
  8. 13¢200

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Market opened Sep 3, 2026, 1:05 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$4,393

1 week volume

$8,415

1 month volume

$17,717

1 year volume

$17,717

Spread

0.80%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

86.8%

1h change

—

1 week change

-5.50%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x83041b00859d5262af3c3eb6eccc8835e267e1bd60851e99ebf22e8d4336a84a
Question ID:
0x17e366537ef07a8fd9ba33638ca1045cb014c8bf67a00b148cedb50e286cd17c

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 11.0%, No at 89.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$17,717 in total volume, with $4,393 in the last 24 hours and $984 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Sep 30, 2026. The market opened on Sep 3, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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