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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?

Active · Ends Sep 30, 2026

No probability

94.5%

24h change

+2.50%

Total volume

$12,497

Liquidity

$697

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 185.5%94.5%

Outcomes

Yes5.5%
No94.5%

Order book

Yes · 48 levels
BidsSize
  1. 4¢70
  2. 4¢27
  3. 4¢360
  4. 4¢169
  5. 3¢100
  6. 2¢9
  7. 2¢16
  8. 2¢152
AsksSize
  1. 7¢328
  2. 7¢145
  3. 10¢50
  4. 17¢25
  5. 26¢20
  6. 26¢30
  7. 31¢50
  8. 42¢60

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Market opened Sep 3, 2026, 1:05 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$8,830

1 week volume

$10,951

1 month volume

$12,497

1 year volume

$12,497

Spread

3.30%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

83.5%

1h change

-1.75%

1 week change

-13.95%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x8e20b54e1fa4315d18e7d06da9b8d3012b4834e3dc737ca89e5a2f8ececbd112
Question ID:
0x16e12a40f70810ac4b02d86c211866e572ad79258b3b5536f6a38ee0925bcaf9

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 5.5%, No at 94.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$12,497 in total volume, with $8,830 in the last 24 hours and $697 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Sep 30, 2026. The market opened on Sep 3, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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