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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?

Active · Ends Sep 27, 2026

No probability

98.8%

24h change

-70.30%

Total volume

$9,674

Liquidity

$3,457

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 181.2%98.8%

Outcomes

Yes1.2%
No98.8%

Order book

Yes · 33 levels
BidsSize
  1. 1¢97
  2. 0¢150
  3. 0¢405
  4. 0¢94
AsksSize
  1. 2¢41
  2. 2¢1,515
  3. 5¢22
  4. 5¢500
  5. 10¢500
  6. 19¢160
  7. 30¢50
  8. 40¢100

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market opened Sep 1, 2026, 2:32 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$4,843

1 week volume

$7,606

1 month volume

$9,674

1 year volume

$9,674

Spread

1.40%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.8%

1h change

—

1 week change

-57.80%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x744a5154cd537ef81056d7a565fd54aa36ef1632af2c3f02610babd946fc4e90
Question ID:
0x98a4878d3f4523297b1a605a5a764c771fb700a12a515a7ac3ba670bdbae3f2c

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?" prediction market?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 1.2%, No at 98.8% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$9,674 in total volume, with $4,843 in the last 24 hours and $3,457 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Sep 27, 2026. The market opened on Sep 1, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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