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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

Yes probability

98.4%

24h change

—

Total volume

$3.3M

Liquidity

$146,891

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1898.4%1.7%

Outcomes

Yes98.4%
No1.7%

Order book

Yes · 109 levels
BidsSize
  1. 98¢894
  2. 98¢127
  3. 98¢13,566
  4. 98¢2,011
  5. 98¢2,611
  6. 98¢1,723
  7. 97¢3,222
  8. 97¢3,222
AsksSize
  1. 99¢343
  2. 99¢1,656
  3. 99¢1,279
  4. 99¢4,100
  5. 99¢6,341
  6. 99¢5,178
  7. 99¢3,722
  8. 99¢7,897

  • 0x8CDdB4433ff1538Bf2a4Fc86e1A1c5a1d2a68520-176358388458118h ago

    This is very misleading.

    0

  • 0xF67cffacCe263FD3EDfb368FC13dc9b8aB880D14-17697836928921d ago

    I’m going to sue Polimarket for this. They better cancel this trade

    7

  • MiYodea19h ago

    😂😂 you do that boss

    0

  • dnDaMan31d ago

    air india told its passengers september's a write-off weeks ago and the board just caught up, the closure was priced at 90-plus on polybro before the airlines said it out loud...

    0

  • AliTheBeast1d ago

    Me after paying NO and i didnt see thats : Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify.

    3

  • nosaben2613h ago

    me too, srry bro

    0

  • ESC2026AP1d ago

    If not a single flight is canceled.. how is that "closing airspace"??

    3

  • mvrkgp122d ago

    RIGGED MARKET

    2

  • ithinkthisisgod2d ago

    as a fellow,sttop donating by buying yes

    0

  • AliTheBeast2d ago

    i dont understand about all this 30 september OKKKk!!! Holiday on 21 september i dont understand ???

    2

  • TheJewishHammer1d ago

    Jewish holiday. Everything is closed. It war scam marker, from day one.

    1

  • conormurphy3d ago

    - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify* - the entire country comes to a total standstill, civilian air traffic controllers, radar operators, and data technicians go home to fast and pray

    0

  • Rinzooffical4d ago

    is anyone disputing man

    0

  • AliTheBeast3d ago

    No i did not

    0

  • BIBI9994d ago

    What about the context??? We are talking about war airspace closure, Polymarket is not credible anymore

    1

  • conormurphy4d ago

    RULES ARE CLEARRR - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod5d ago

    3% kipuur get canceled? isnt this free 3%

    0

  • Rinzooffical5d ago

    can anyone dispute please

    0

  • conormurphy5d ago

    RULES ARE CLEAR- - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*

    0

  • Rinzooffical5d ago

    Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined! there is also no like big whales here so it can’t be rigged!!

    4

  • anoinwhowin4d ago

    You decided on you own to bet on a "poorly written" market, thus getting exposed to any clarification possible. Stop complaining in the casino

    0

  • 0x1f606f1f0e933cd6CD663a4Ec647B828e0E57AEF-17723707092006d ago

    yom kipur on 21st september but is still available flights on this date, so this is not 98%…

    0

  • 0x1f606f1f0e933cd6CD663a4Ec647B828e0E57AEF-17723707092006d ago

    even

    0

  • conormurphy6d ago

    RULES ARE CLEAR AS CAN BE - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*

    0

  • Rinzooffical6d ago

    Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined! there is also no like big whales here so it can’t be rigged!

    2

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Aug 18, 2026, 4:24 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:08 PM

Market data

24h volume

$44,746

1 week volume

$729,783

1 month volume

$3.3M

1 year volume

$3.3M

Spread

0.30%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.1%

1h change

+0.15%

1 week change

+1.75%

1 month change

+86.35%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xcfbc2e5fbabb9e8a03bf234367244d4c97eaaf3ac33e2ba001541ee3e0e62416
Question ID:
0xa8e5d7242347be518c43e2aa516ac35823c2c08f071d116921d08cb84b2ecb44

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Israel closes its airspace by September 30?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 98.4%, No at 1.7% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$3.3M in total volume, with $44,746 in the last 24 hours and $146,891 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Aug 18, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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