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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Active · Ends Sep 30, 2026

Yes probability

93.5%

24h change

+1.00%

Total volume

$2.2M

Liquidity

$113,179

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1893.5%6.5%

Outcomes

Yes93.5%
No6.5%

Order book

Yes · 53 levels
BidsSize
  1. 93¢16,024
  2. 92¢18,563
  3. 91¢21,821
  4. 90¢11,423
  5. 89¢1,106
  6. 88¢510
  7. 87¢344
  8. 86¢522
AsksSize
  1. 94¢5
  2. 95¢20,452
  3. 96¢52,825
  4. 97¢95,921
  5. 98¢123,379
  6. 99¢120,380

  • 0xc1dB6A1F893830B7f856B1023A8655959056838D-17612461782751d ago

    TA in Tehran!

    0

  • 12beduins1d ago

    The ###s has silenced him most likely he sometimes had valid critique bout israel THATS STRICTLY VERBOTEN

    0

  • 12beduins1d ago

    What happend to Abdoohl awesome comments? Wheres Abdoohl??

    0

  • yungsoleimani2d ago

    You guys are so right simulated run means war is UPON US ALL, please mog orderbook and demolish Y so i can get cheaper shares.

    1

  • iNeedMoreDollars2d ago

    arguing with yourself award goes to you

    1

  • yungsoleimani2d ago

    Are you illiterate perhaps?

    0

  • WaterFloww1d ago

    great debt will be yours

    0

  • yungsoleimani1d ago

    Nopp

    1

  • adasol2d ago

    Israel atomic energy chief says country will act again if necessary against Iran threat Israel will act again if necessary to ensure its survival in the face of threats from Iran, the head of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission said, adding that the country would not “stand idly by.” “A public threat from the radical regime of the ayatollahs in Iran to destroy the State of Israel is something we cannot ignore,” Moshe Edri said. “Israel cannot, and will not, stand idly by in the face of such a threat. We have acted to ensure our survival, and we will do so again if necessary.”

    1

  • NoSteinNoGate2d ago

    Is he a politician or why is he making political statements?

    0

  • pink.impala2d ago

    hes entitled, dont be antisemitic man

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod3d ago

    at this point buying yes is free money

    0

  • NoSteinNoGate3d ago

    Maybe, they have a reason to be actually afraid of Iran now, Interceptors getting sparse

    0

  • 0xDcEf6C9FdA1CF0B7e6170DC7Ea2D5E55373bfF3A-17600861717166d ago

    "Houthis seize key Red Sea island, complete takeover of Bab el-Mandeb area, says official" - Times Of Israel News

    0

  • pink.impala6d ago

    So bibi is literally pure evil, and now he just admitted that pure evil struck on both 911 n oct 7.. interesting 🤔

    0

  • pink.impala6d ago

    Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: On September 11th, America was hit by pure evil. On October 7th, Israel was hit by it again.

    0

  • qizhan8d ago

    imaging your apartment under the bomb

    0

  • OnlyInGodWeTrust8d ago

    Israel does not target civilians. I'd rather spend months in the safe room, as long as the Iranian regime is destroyed.

    1

  • RealRonnieTyler3d ago

    Amen to that, brother. That regime is way over time and belongs on history's junkyard. My family in Tehran wish for nothing more than to hear the sweet sounds of Israeli and US planes and drones hunting basij, SEPA etc. Bibi is legend 🫡 God bless

    1

  • OnlyInGodWeTrust2d ago

    Take care brother

    0

  • 0xBbBD1B0780d8B58DDEfa37B3C4cea3835a9cc023-17801229203559d ago

    Jordan is near…

    1

  • EasyGoingA9d ago

    Does anyone else ever worry when the top holders you’re betting against are up A TON in polymarket?!?

    1

  • iutwpfal9d ago

    Shush

    1

  • Car11d ago

    WAR

    2

  • Shilu459d ago

    You should buy Oct. Because of elections in Israel

    0

  • GAMBLEMAX11d ago

    Largest surprise, military-wide readiness exercise since October 7th massacre involving the entire IDF: IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir launched a surprise, military-wide readiness exercise involving the entire IDF- from the Air Force and special forces to the General Staff. The timing, just before the Jewish holidays. IDF's Zamir has made it clear: readiness for a surprise attack a top priority.

    0

  • yungsoleimani14d ago

    sorry not sorry man

    0

  • yungsoleimani14d ago

    yopp

    0

  • 0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240215d ago

    This dispute concerns the Polymarket market “Israel × Iran ceasefire continues through…”, which is priced at 100% YES as of August 31. This does not match the rules or the verified events. The ceasefire ends if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action. Qualifying actions include air strikes and surface‑to‑surface missile launches, and the rules clearly state that interception does not matter — the launch itself qualifies. These qualifying actions already happened after market creation: • March 18, 2026 – Iran → Israel: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as qualifying surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. • March 22–27, 2026 – Israel → Iran: Israel carried out multiple airstrikes inside Iran, including strikes in Tehran and at a uranium facility in Yazd. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions. Both governments confirmed these events, and they were consistently reported by credible outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, and Al Jazeera. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Therefore, the market cannot resolve to YES and must resolve to NO under the stated rules.

    0

  • 12beduins15d ago

    🤡

    0

  • Konfucious14d ago

    Mate literally just read the entire rules section, and look when the market was created. Also dont use AI só much, it’s wrong often.

    1

  • 0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-176422619240215d ago

    It does not make sense for this market to be priced at 100% YES on August 31st. According to the market rules, even a single qualifying military action between Israel and Iran ends the ceasefire and forces a NO resolution. Both countries have already carried out qualifying actions: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, and Israel conducted airstrikes inside Iran. These events are confirmed by both governments and credible news sources. Because qualifying actions have clearly occurred, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. A 100% YES price therefore does not reflect the rules or the documented events. It is likely caused by traders misunderstanding the rules or assuming intercepted missiles do not count, even though the rules explicitly state that the launch itself qualifies. Conclusion: The current 100% YES pricing is not aligned with the market rules. Under those rules, the market should resolve to NO.

    0

  • 52centis15d ago

    Could you please tell me what date these mutual launches were? Are there any news links?

    0

  • 12beduins15d ago

    🤡 🤡 🤡

    0

  • 503881318512d ago

    Aug 31 is already over. 🤡🤡 However there is always a chance, with CNN claiming Iran missiles at US ships recently and Jewish holidays coming up soon. US would want to TACO but Iran likely won't let them.

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Market opened Aug 7, 2026, 2:26 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$64,917

1 week volume

$403,244

1 month volume

$2.1M

1 year volume

$2.2M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

84.1%

1h change

—

1 week change

+9.00%

1 month change

+11.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x524ce344b80a160c237d91a33efdd8b82468b0dc0d33f60d500f8bf69b80b8bb
Question ID:
0xd36411ec5a8c04d35c8afa64d11f62f7816323074318c96810df1e07f31624c0

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 93.5%, No at 6.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2.2M in total volume, with $64,917 in the last 24 hours and $113,179 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Sep 30, 2026. The market opened on Aug 7, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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