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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Active · Ends Nov 1, 2026

Yes probability

94.5%

24h change

+2.60%

Total volume

$2,223

Liquidity

$2,082

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1894.5%5.5%

Outcomes

Yes94.5%
No5.5%

Order book

Yes · 41 levels
BidsSize
  1. 92¢28
  2. 92¢91
  3. 92¢160
  4. 92¢140
  5. 90¢20
  6. 90¢600
  7. 87¢40
  8. 87¢8
AsksSize
  1. 97¢64
  2. 97¢22
  3. 97¢105
  4. 97¢152
  5. 98¢10
  6. 98¢47
  7. 98¢210
  8. 98¢350

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market opened Jul 31, 2026, 2:34 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$405

1 week volume

$1,352

1 month volume

$1,617

1 year volume

$2,223

Spread

4.60%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

83.5%

1h change

+0.20%

1 week change

-2.75%

1 month change

-1.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xda19903324fcfa8490e5b7ec91ea359fc72d9ddbe3231090f4b9823a676cb61c
Question ID:
0x91d355be396094f3238d03110d5213fd0df1a320b4ce5347dd5c5284fd5b587a

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?" prediction market?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 94.5%, No at 5.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2,223 in total volume, with $405 in the last 24 hours and $2,082 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 1, 2026. The market opened on Jul 31, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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