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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

Yes probability

78.1%

24h change

-13.20%

Total volume

$32,098

Liquidity

$850

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1878.1%21.9%

Outcomes

Yes78.1%
No21.9%

Order book

Yes · 71 levels
BidsSize
  1. 77¢20
  2. 77¢20
  3. 73¢15
  4. 73¢10
  5. 73¢6
  6. 69¢15
  7. 67¢16
  8. 67¢40
AsksSize
  1. 79¢75
  2. 79¢60
  3. 80¢20
  4. 80¢120
  5. 83¢11
  6. 84¢11
  7. 84¢11
  8. 85¢33

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market opened Jul 31, 2026, 2:34 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,001

1 week volume

$7,521

1 month volume

$23,605

1 year volume

$32,098

Spread

1.80%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

92.7%

1h change

+0.70%

1 week change

-3.75%

1 month change

-16.15%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x0eb7539d08d0ae47d3af023b3c2d243a9c230b0c035251e0d8fe347c630c8570
Question ID:
0x46e7f9784c9cc3b6ceecfa0cc59fc7bb0ff29443c19e8943ee63c438e9e4cee1

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?" prediction market?

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 78.1%, No at 21.9% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$32,098 in total volume, with $3,001 in the last 24 hours and $850 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Jul 31, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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