Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

No probability

99.5%

24h change

-0.20%

Total volume

$1.5M

Liquidity

$187,568

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes0.5%

No99.5%

adasol18h ago
Trump says deciding on whether to ‘annihilate’ Iranian foes US President Donald Trump says he’s approaching a crucial decision on whether to “annihilate” his Iranian foes. “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?” Trump told Axios. “It’s a big decision. Anything could happen with me,” he added
0
Urizen18d ago
I'm looking for evidence that distinguishes Iran losing control of Kharg Island from ordinary political noise
0
adasol18d ago
US bombed two IRGC rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, US official says US forces have bombed two rocket launchers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) on the country’s Larak Island, according to an unnamed US official speaking to our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic. The official claimed Sunday’s attack came as the launchers were preparing to fire missiles carrying naval mines towards the Strait of Hormuz.
0
adasol22d ago
BREAKING: Iran directly warns it will massively escalate the confrontation with the United States within the next 48 hours, declaring that its response to Washington's economic war will carry "consequences" and that Tehran is "not empty-handed." "The necessary warnings have been issued, and our cooperation with the United States will have consequences," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, confirming that any country cooperating with the U.S. campaign will face retaliation
0
Isekai1mo ago
Karg Maxxing
2
hyper-liquid-xyz1mo ago
US officials, EIA admit that oil disruptions from Iran war may be prolonged until late 2027, admitting that it could mirror Ukraine like stalemate.
1
adasol1mo ago
wondering how long does it take before Trump threatens to take Kharg island again
0
alpaje1mo ago
trump is the biggest p*ssy of all time, we will destroy civilization toady!!!!!! and then 9 hours later peace deal signed, absolute actor
1
hava-nagila1mo ago
im telling u should buy yes goy
0
hava-nagila1mo ago
buy yes, easy money.
0
adasol1mo ago
Three explosions heard on Kharg Island Three explosions have been heard on Kharg Island, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports.
0
adasol1mo ago
US military conducting air strikes in Iran - Axios The US military is conducting air strikes in Iran, a US official told Axios on Wednesday.
0
88blitzcrank1mo ago
Problem with TACO is Iran does not agree. AlJazeera says they just attacked US forces despite prospects of maybe deal. Please Trump I beg you to finish the job.
0
Vladpoutino1mo ago
Inshallah
0
adasol1mo ago
JUST IN: Trump threatens WIPEOUT of Iranian bridges, power plants AGAIN on FOX NEWS
0
hyper-liquid-xyz1mo ago
WTI OIL FUTURES DOWN 5% TO 78, US WAVING WHITE FLAG BY POSSIBLY ACCEPTING IRAN TOLLS, BEARISH
0
alpaje1mo ago
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. This market will never be yes isn't it?
0
Mio.Aoi1mo ago
longer
0
0x4C6A68AD49C44da012c760893267EEcB135997BE-17756791065561mo ago
Trump threatens to occupy the island
0
hyper-liquid-xyz1mo ago
WTF LOOK AT TRUTH SOCIAL TRUMP IS POSTING RANDOM DESTROYING IRAN AND KHARG POSSIBILITIES
0
Milin-dc1mo ago
still cheap
0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jul 30, 2026, 12:44 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$39,205

1 week volume

$291,371

1 month volume

$1.1M

1 year volume

$1.5M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

-0.70%

1 month change

-2.30%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x46477994c02fdd4f7be7eacc58d343457d80333d92e5c4ad9a3117274d0e5639
Question ID:: 0xeface03751d56f31dc6dc7a2fa225773a1fdf0c545fbbe314a28cdd5898f201c

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.5%, No at 99.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.5M in total volume, with $39,205 in the last 24 hours and $187,568 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Jul 30, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.