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Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

No probability

94.0%

24h change

-0.50%

Total volume

$333,343

Liquidity

$14,872

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 186.0%94.0%

Outcomes

Yes6.0%
No94.0%

Order book

Yes · 29 levels
BidsSize
  1. 5¢78
  2. 4¢844
  3. 3¢3,237
  4. 2¢15,331
  5. 1¢9,372
AsksSize
  1. 7¢405
  2. 8¢540
  3. 9¢2,058
  4. 10¢4,726
  5. 12¢99
  6. 16¢8
  7. 17¢888
  8. 18¢1,847

  • arrakis429d ago

    This market doesnt make any sense!

    0

  • arrakis429d ago

    @ChefSlick Because 75% is way too high for October. This is an independent assessment site that scooped and analyzed all the available rumors online and they conclude that the model is still training and that : "Gemini 4 should launch in November or December.”. 9to5google com/2026/07/26/google-gemini-4-teases/

    1

  • Never-KYS22d ago

    I guess it's time boys

    1

  • Mikelious2mo ago

    It's coming home 17th of July lets goooo

    0

  • Mikelious2mo ago

    Gemini 3.5 pro just announced as "coming soon" on Google Deep Mind. Gemini 4 is inevitably going to release with it as per credible leakers.

    0

  • noniqque4mo ago

    are prediction markets still extremely inefficient or am I extremely dumb

    0

  • 418Imateapot4mo ago

    Yes.

    0

  • noniqque4mo ago

    we should just short google bro

    0

  • AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF7mo ago

    Guys they're already A/B testing Gemini 4.0 [link removed]

    5

  • AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF7mo ago

    Was spotted in Antigravity [link removed]

    1

  • traderinchief9mo ago

    Odds are ridiculously high, there's no chance this happens. 3.0 is not even out of preview yet and there were 10 months between 2.0 and 3.0

    0

  • George.Smiley9mo ago

    Crazy we got a Gemini 4.0 market before a Gemini 3.5 market

    3

  • ZynBaby9mo ago

    if u read the rules this is gemini 4.0 and a 4.0 flash market

    0

  • George.Smiley9mo ago

    I know that. It's surprising though that we got a market for 4.0 before 3.5 given that Google does releases in 0.5 increments

    0

  • 0xc6bD70e4d462CA1CE4360E47294671E997480b58-17451325724378mo ago

    Did you buy yes for funsies

    0

  • George.Smiley8mo ago

    A hedge, probably won't pay out but 6 months is a long time

    1

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jul 29, 2026, 4:55 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:08 PM

Market data

24h volume

$13,155

1 week volume

$65,924

1 month volume

$286,266

1 year volume

$333,343

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

83.8%

1h change

-1.00%

1 week change

-0.50%

1 month change

-13.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x6753180082c3024e0727352387066cabf13fd2ebea317ec4394baa8d8a86c1ea
Question ID:
0x5b2803504b90dc9aaf5f90e833ba71cd8d5cb395c951b3324702bdbee82ff510

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 6.0%, No at 94.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$333,343 in total volume, with $13,155 in the last 24 hours and $14,872 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Jul 29, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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