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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 1, 2026

No probability

67.0%

24h change

-0.50%

Total volume

$1.4M

Liquidity

$127,725

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1833.0%67.0%

Outcomes

Yes33.0%
No67.0%

Order book

Yes · 90 levels
BidsSize
  1. 32¢417
  2. 31¢2,380
  3. 30¢11,607
  4. 29¢63,949
  5. 28¢132
  6. 27¢240
  7. 26¢101
  8. 25¢722
AsksSize
  1. 34¢6,352
  2. 35¢7,807
  3. 36¢14,390
  4. 37¢2,175
  5. 38¢1,175
  6. 39¢363
  7. 40¢314
  8. 41¢216

  • MARV-13h ago

    guys, what about the meeting next week? do you think it might reopen the blockade?

    0

  • brightleaf1d ago

    Buy more Yes

    0

  • KyroKennn2d ago

    Today is the day 😝

    0

  • MARV-12d ago

    Day for what?

    1

  • AlexxHamilton2d ago

    noises .... don't care

    1

  • NoSteinNoGate3d ago

    How many times will YES bettors fall for the same thing again and again?

    1

  • tsybka3d ago

    PEACE

    3

  • mewmew13d ago

    based

    1

  • Ning00493d ago

    What is happing? Why doesn't the system resolve September 14 case?

    0

  • yonips3d ago

    bc it's literally still sep 14 just read the rules dude

    1

  • RUMBLED4d ago

    There is gonna be a lot of price fluctuations from here until the date of expiry, whatever that is but Imo the only reasons this resolves no is if Trump passes and Vance takes over or if Trump decides to just declare victory and lie and say he'll withdraw. The amount of people here betting on him acting sane is ridiculous.

    0

  • yonips4d ago

    Did you mean the only reasons it might resolve yes? didn't understand

    0

  • RUMBLED4d ago

    Yes, that was my mistake. I meant to say resolves as Yes.

    1

  • yonips3d ago

    ah got it

    1

  • 0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-17661887109544d ago

    how tf did i miss this price action omg, it was at fckin 26% you can‘t make this shi up

    1

  • yungsoleimani4d ago

    hindsightmaxxing

    1

  • IamBatman-4d ago

    yopp

    1

  • eugenewp6d ago

    WTF?

    0

  • 12beduins7d ago

    Fox's Ingraham: What do you say to all the young men who supported you in 2024? Trump: And they still do. Ingraham: I think a lot of them still do, but some of them are demoralized. Trump: No, no, no. I don't think they're demoralized. I think they're very proud of the fact I'm not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. I disagree with you.

    0

  • 0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546567d ago

    Trump needs to start de-escalating if Republicans are going to win mid terms, bonds are sky rocketing, stock market tanking, im sure to short squeeze everyone he will de escalate this weekend or next.

    0

  • doyouwanttogotothemoon9d ago

    > be products

    1

  • AlexxHamilton9d ago

    situation in Houmoz is for US, US is selling too much oil with price 98 $ , just be smart guys .

    0

  • AlexxHamilton9d ago

    hey abdollah , i know you lost a lot of money pray for you , it is a simple search to see how many barrel of oil US is selling before and after war .

    0

  • iutwpfal9d ago

    It's risk free money really. No downsides.

    0

  • AlexxHamilton7d ago

    these are stupid toughts of Abdollah ,

    0

  • 0x12F04BB19edB5E59a1c41dB62F175eF9Fb422133-178240640228410d ago

    At least end of the year lmfao

    1

  • 0xbF4d20238211d ago

    If Iran publishes its shipping route map, the US will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What will the US gain?

    2

  • adasol11d ago

    Iran and Oman to sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in coming days: Rezaei We have more from Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s ‌top ⁠security ⁠official. “The new international corridor that Iran manages has been determined with the Omani brothers and will be announced in the coming days,” Rezaei said, according to state media.

    0

  • 0xbF4d20238211d ago

    If the United States lifts the blockade, how will the nuclear issue be resolved?

    1

  • NoSteinNoGate11d ago

    It will never be resolved but at some point the blockade will be lifted

    0

  • 0xbF4d20238210d ago

    Lifting the blockade must be linked to the nuclear roadmap; otherwise, how can Trump's most important goal be achieved?

    0

  • AlexxHamilton11d ago

    GN mates .

    0

  • conotocaurius11d ago

    Haven't changed my opinion. We're in the middle of a major escalation cycle. Either the US will lose a ship or the Israelis will cry uncle after about a week or so of bombing back and forth. The idea that Israel has suddenly learnt restraint and that's why it isn't attacking Iran isn't credible. They are scared of Iran's firepower and the lack of US interceptors. It's not out of the question the blockade is over by September 30th, basically 50/50.

    0

  • RUMBLED11d ago

    The logical decision is for the United States to just withdraw and take the L. The problem is that the president is an 80 year narccisist who has an overwhelming need to always been seen as a winner. The only argument I see for an Sept. 30th resolution of Yes is if he's doing it to manipulate oil markets and is lying about withdrawing which actually makes this risky since the way the bet is worded only asks that an announcement is made, not neccesarily carried out.

    0

  • 0xbF4d20238211d ago

    How could escalating tensions lead to lifting the strait blockade? What kind of logic is that?

    0

Rules

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Market opened Jul 27, 2026, 5:51 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$28,024

1 week volume

$262,019

1 month volume

$980,543

1 year volume

$1.4M

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

97.2%

1h change

+0.50%

1 week change

-4.50%

1 month change

-19.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xcee04ba47d02f6c64642369b34193c355f64de1b9ae425c71ea4efef1989d271
Question ID:
0x2c37332d34c76c83ceaeed250806435f52f7405de767adb77bec1f6496409b33

Frequently asked questions

What is the "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?" prediction market?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 33.0%, No at 67.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.4M in total volume, with $28,024 in the last 24 hours and $127,725 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 1, 2026. The market opened on Jul 27, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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