Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2029

No probability

73.5%

24h change

+1.00%

Total volume

$35,298

Liquidity

$12,371

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes26.5%

No73.5%

yen4u9d ago
I just lost all my money FUCK!!!!!
3
JillBiden9d ago
CMI has a minimum 2-year review period before a solution can even be considered for the prize, and the only precedent took ~7 years from proof to award, 2026 has zero chance.
0
0x0f3A9a48Db57e7Feac7D8dE0Ba49b2B0C52a95c5-177440081927710d ago
Why would you hold this shit for 2 years for 20%
0
lamyk10d ago
navier stokes solution published EOW
2
werfjirvgieh9d ago
Nope
0
lamyk9d ago
why you being a negative nancy? it will.
0
lamyk9d ago
idiot
0
qv7mrx29kptf4z12d ago
2028 YES at 51% seems too high. CMI requires a qualifying publication, then at least 2 years of examination and general acceptance before it even begins detailed consideration. After that, there is still a separate expert committee review. A new 2026 proof could be completely correct and still easily miss the 2028 deadline.
0
Jesetrading9d ago
🤫🤫🤫🤫
0
Snow-White13d ago
retard "h-numbers" simply LOVES buying bonds that are not bonds, what a stupid piece of shit
0
Snow-White13d ago
H-NUMBERS is one of the stupidest creatures to ever touch this site,. Needs to be locked up next to his Minnesota judge friend, on account of his IMBECILITY.
0
Snow-White13d ago
oh, this is where the brain-dead dumbfuq who thought they would NEVER convict the Minnesota judge hangs out to distort markets and stupidly bonds out nonbonds, the CRETIN H-NUMBERS
0
0x00C9a9EaD7f1e8BE23768e2F1c5dD528f9e343b7-17690738931481mo ago
The thing is that even if it's solved, CMI has a rule of 2 years wait for "accepting" a proof. So that's actually a tricky one.
3

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Market opened Jul 24, 2026, 9:05 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$967

1 week volume

$6,580

1 month volume

$35,296

1 year volume

$35,298

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

94.8%

1h change

—

1 week change

-11.00%

1 month change

-9.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x1559fd02f1e6dc9ac3b3ed7fb41aa53e10df2a32d3ebbcab516efcaec6117d9e
Question ID:: 0xe007816fe8a28b3d7baf63f54d5621bc7e709feb2d04443fa573cd51bdd79fc1

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 26.5%, No at 73.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$35,298 in total volume, with $967 in the last 24 hours and $12,371 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2029. The market opened on Jul 24, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.