Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

82.5%

24h change

-4.50%

Total volume

$907,688

Liquidity

$89,366

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes17.5%

No82.5%

beartrapper1d ago
every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected
0
higinvest1d ago
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
0
higinvest1d ago
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
0
higinvest2d ago
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
0
Eirnearzx513d ago
boberne is win
0
tsybka3d ago
I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.
1
NoSteinNoGate3d ago
noone is stopping you lil bro
5
DontTrustMe5d ago
Yes buyers be like:
3
Car5d ago
bruh
3
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546567d ago
Pretty sure announcement, and traffic going to 0 today. Weird it correlated exactly on 9/11
1
Prof.Money-Exterminator7d ago
Houthis are fucking wild. Ain’t no way for Nopers
0
Raskell7d ago
The Egyptians won't tolerate a full closure. The chinese have shown clearly they will side with Egypt. Saudi Arabia is a clown show, but Ansar Allah can not ignore Beijing.
3
Raskell7d ago
That being said, of course the market conditions for a yes could be met temporarily.
0
50388131857d ago
Agree with you, the hardest part is whether Houthi is able to maintain the block. More bullish news from Hormuz Letter X, Hisn Murad, the narrowest part of the strait, just fell to the Houthis. However take this as a grain of salt as they sometimes overexaggerate.
0
Raskell5d ago
The hardest part isn't if they can maintain a block but if they will even initiate a block that goes far enough. The best shot we have is that the current war caused enough diversions for this to go yes just from that.
1
Raskell5d ago
War + the current block is the most propable yes scenario at the moment. The houthis don't want more international pressure atm.
1
PMplayer7d ago
annyone care to explain why sept 30 is going up ?
0
saneperson7d ago
yemeni forces had to back off and houthis moved forward
0
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546567d ago
They literally have one more island to take on the straight and then they can shut it down... they captured 3 in a day i believe. No one to stop them.
1
yungsoleimani8d ago
houthi mog
0
SIMOMEGA16h ago
keep this pfp please
0
yungsoleimani25d ago
December 31 Yopp is free money, do i make the rules? No! I just collect the money man sorry not sorry
2
IamBatman-25d ago
yopp
1
SIMOMEGA24d ago
Nopp
0
zthunderfury26d ago
Not going to happen
0
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d26d ago
I wish you had told me before I bought all those YES shares
1
hyper-liquid-xyz29d ago
I am an Pakistani ship! I went through the strait and there were not any mines...yet. I am scared once Iran gives the order, they could throw any random amount in there!
1
Deterrance29d ago
Houthis planning to seize Bab al-Mandeb Strait: Yemeni minister
1
DontTrustMe1mo ago
Nothing has changed btw. 🥱
1
yungsoleimani1mo ago
Sorry not sorry i dont make the rules i just collect the money man
1
AmericaOnly1mo ago
Shipping down from 42 to 25 since 2 weeks ago. Dec here we come.
1
DontTrustMe1mo ago
There might a tiny seasonal effect. Early-mid August is unlikely to be the busiest time of the year.
0

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Market opened Jul 9, 2026, 12:26 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$59,020

1 week volume

$266,480

1 month volume

$581,909

1 year volume

$907,688

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

90.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

-14.00%

1 month change

-4.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0
Question ID:: 0x984963a06aebd4772bd0690088de5caf20d9ff97bb69e96c3beb6dde8bf2e8ec

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 17.5%, No at 82.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$907,688 in total volume, with $59,020 in the last 24 hours and $89,366 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jul 9, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.