Iran leadership change by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

No probability

98.3%

24h change

+0.20%

Total volume

$1.1M

Liquidity

$263,353

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes1.8%

No98.3%

Jatheripper3d ago
good luck killing the dead
0
Robbb1mo ago
lol
1
0x619DC40631C5f78606d17Ed1528d62898096B31C-17679157634611mo ago
Breaking:Mojtaba waked up !
0
altdel1mo ago
As always, just Iranian rumors. Take advantage while others are selling.
3
Mikelious1mo ago
BREAKING 🔴 Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in extremely critical condition and could pass away at any moment, two sources close to the Pezeshkian administration told IranWire.
1
NOIZYUV1mo ago
Mojtaba Khamenei's father-in-law, former Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, in an interview with the Iranian IRNA agency: "For certain reasons, he is not in contact with any entity or person, hoping that he is healthy"
2
Treedud251mo ago
Already over
0
PMTraderAdam1mo ago
In the city, 'member used to drive a Yukon
0
GollumGekko2mo ago
the dead cannot die
8
Laurenman1mo ago
Fact.
0
Zubumafu1mo ago
Better sell those 6K bro, they can't hide the fact that their leader is dead forever
0
Zubumafu2mo ago
He is likely dead, and if not, he will get assassinated, Trump is sick of him
0
NoSteinNoGate2mo ago
Can a dead person be a de facto leader? What would Saul Kripke think of this?
1
Zubumafu2mo ago
They will keep him as Zombie leader for the next 2-3 months and then replace him
0
NOIZYUV2mo ago
The Saudi channel Al-Hadath claims, citing an Israeli security source: "Mojtaba Khamenei is not in Iran."
0
JuicyPusy2mo ago
Yall retarded? He went to his father's funeral yesterday.
0
NOIZYUV2mo ago
As a ghost maybe
1
0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-17665072160512mo ago
I don't understand why the scandalous lack of any proof that Mojtaba is alive isn't being used as a major weapon against the regime.
0
NOIZYUV2mo ago
He's dead and it's only a matter of time until it becomes known
2
Zubumafu2mo ago
Yup, though it won't happen on July, they have to finish this war face, the change will be a month or two after the negotiations (and war) ends
0
NOIZYUV2mo ago
Yeah I probably made a mistake buying for July
0
Zubumafu2mo ago
You did, that's for sure, it will take a few months at the very least until they admit that he is dead
0
NOIZYUV2mo ago
Yeah bro, I placed an order for june 2027
0
Zubumafu2mo ago
Yeah that one is free money, just sucks that it's going to be a while until we receive it
1
Mission32mo ago
Leadership not gonna change by end of year
0
hyper-liquid-xyz2mo ago
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮
0
Isekai3mo ago
Moj safe again
0
Zubumafu3mo ago
He is dead
0
JuicyPusy3mo ago
His father's burial and funeral is scheduled for next week, and Mojtaba will be leading the burial prayer at holy shrine where his father will be buried. The regime wouldn't have had scheduled a burial for the previous supreme leader if his son (and the new leader) wasn't going to attend it.
0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jun 29, 2026, 2:43 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:08 PM

Market data

24h volume

$17,517

1 week volume

$79,735

1 month volume

$652,698

1 year volume

$1.1M

Spread

0.30%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.1%

1h change

-0.05%

1 week change

-0.65%

1 month change

-2.75%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x094772b3529f455e881a4483eaf1c24266384f55e97c23f24f638f5726ba9920
Question ID:: 0xc38ccf020f20b47d95f67c84a7b52679f8d30cfe1fe071706ed2af2b2e9f7717

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Iran leadership change by September 30?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 1.8%, No at 98.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.1M in total volume, with $17,517 in the last 24 hours and $263,353 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Jun 29, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.