Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

No probability

97.5%

24h change

+0.25%

Total volume

$381,936

Liquidity

$18,502

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes2.5%

No97.5%

shomski1mo ago
you will be smiling on tuesday
0
DontTrustMe1mo ago
You are so mysterious and so cool bro. 🥵
0
tiongbu1mo ago
I will be smiling but you will be crying
0
SIMOMEGA29d ago
point of your comment?
0
DontTrustMe1mo ago
I don't think that WSJ article changes anything. There is no confirmation inside it that a merger will definitely happen. And if one was to ever happen, the article makes it clear that the Chinese side of Tesla's operations would first need to be fully separated or sold. 2026 is in all likelihood a too short timeframe for this to happen.
0
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol
0
DontTrustMe2mo ago
Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.
3
0xe1EF6DA20a953fa234e4B4c05D9ACc79d27a0145-17769601658131mo ago
Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.
0
DontTrustMe1mo ago
Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.
0
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?
0
ProofOfWork2mo ago
For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control
0
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
what are the downsides of a merge then?
0
BeyondAverage4ck3mo ago
The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened
0
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
How?
0
0xC1F43854000BFF81Da38332Fb25Cf94765bD5344-17685767703206mo ago
Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.
2
ProofOfWork2mo ago
He would gain control.
0
0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-17649005070587mo ago
H
0
0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-17649005070587mo ago
G Wells
0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Jun 9, 2026, 3:29 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$6,328

1 week volume

$11,967

1 month volume

$50,867

1 year volume

$381,936

Spread

0.90%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.6%

1h change

+0.05%

1 week change

-0.15%

1 month change

-3.85%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x9e7056c4004056441b57f960460c5e4f6d3e6ab9e1633b15538eb909d0f34466
Question ID:: 0x9b5de9c731f360b2da89f7e27c146f479725f5a2b2c1530899adf5dde5cfd06f

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 2.5%, No at 97.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$381,936 in total volume, with $6,328 in the last 24 hours and $18,502 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on Jun 9, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.