Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

No probability

95.3%

24h change

-0.40%

Total volume

$162,754

Liquidity

$6,383

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes4.7%

No95.3%

RealRonnieTyler6d ago
The record shows Russians has a tendency to fall flat on their face with a thumb in their 🌟 when it really counts. Ol' Poots throwing tantrums and spending all his amateur soldiers with temu gear at once might get him this little patch, but I'm sorry to say it'll just speed up his and Russia's glorious race to the bottom. Again. I mean, all the resources sold and spent for 80 years and what does Russia have to show for it? It could have been a truly great nation, but Russians haven't given their fatherland one single great leader in a lifetime. Gorbatchov was sincere I think, but didn't really do his country any favors. I actually feel kinda sorry for them / you... Anyway, good luck with that and have great day 🏄‍♂️🤙
0
12beduins13d ago
Its over for OrikHIV
3
mandraca20d ago
Russians are at less than 1 km from the train station and Yes over 31th december is at 27, extremely undervalued !
1

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market opened May 21, 2026, 3:21 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$40,458

1 week volume

$44,228

1 month volume

$78,407

1 year volume

$162,754

Spread

0.70%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

82.9%

1h change

-0.05%

1 week change

-2.05%

1 month change

-1.10%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x5e7e02d2f15bcfd5576c13c3abf29ed4ee6068c0e22228f96f9753d545cbd005
Question ID:: 0x28a3afec8f7c3ea1afa0cfae57fb59f17efaded091b252ae5b3e2adf1dc12fc2

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 4.7%, No at 95.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$162,754 in total volume, with $40,458 in the last 24 hours and $6,383 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on May 21, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.