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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Active · Ends Oct 1, 2026

No probability

96.7%

24h change

-0.05%

Total volume

$3.2M

Liquidity

$164,012

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 183.4%96.7%

Outcomes

Yes3.4%
No96.7%

Order book

Yes · 304 levels
BidsSize
  1. 3¢374
  2. 3¢1,000
  3. 3¢3,170
  4. 3¢3,245
  5. 3¢905
  6. 3¢4,113
  7. 3¢3,666
  8. 3¢11,069
AsksSize
  1. 3¢740
  2. 4¢1,467
  3. 4¢3,102
  4. 4¢1,000
  5. 4¢1,191
  6. 4¢1,241
  7. 4¢1,550
  8. 4¢2,000

  • beartrapper1d ago

    every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected

    0

  • higinvest1d ago

    U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS

    0

  • higinvest1d ago

    Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security

    0

  • higinvest2d ago

    YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT

    0

  • Eirnearzx513d ago

    boberne is win

    0

  • tsybka3d ago

    I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.

    1

  • NoSteinNoGate3d ago

    noone is stopping you lil bro

    5

  • DontTrustMe5d ago

    Yes buyers be like:

    3

  • Car5d ago

    bruh

    3

  • 0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546567d ago

    Pretty sure announcement, and traffic going to 0 today. Weird it correlated exactly on 9/11

    1

  • Prof.Money-Exterminator7d ago

    Houthis are fucking wild. Ain’t no way for Nopers

    0

  • Raskell7d ago

    The Egyptians won't tolerate a full closure. The chinese have shown clearly they will side with Egypt. Saudi Arabia is a clown show, but Ansar Allah can not ignore Beijing.

    3

  • Raskell7d ago

    That being said, of course the market conditions for a yes could be met temporarily.

    0

  • 50388131857d ago

    Agree with you, the hardest part is whether Houthi is able to maintain the block. More bullish news from Hormuz Letter X, Hisn Murad, the narrowest part of the strait, just fell to the Houthis. However take this as a grain of salt as they sometimes overexaggerate.

    0

  • Raskell5d ago

    The hardest part isn't if they can maintain a block but if they will even initiate a block that goes far enough. The best shot we have is that the current war caused enough diversions for this to go yes just from that.

    1

  • Raskell5d ago

    War + the current block is the most propable yes scenario at the moment. The houthis don't want more international pressure atm.

    1

  • PMplayer7d ago

    annyone care to explain why sept 30 is going up ?

    0

  • saneperson7d ago

    yemeni forces had to back off and houthis moved forward

    0

  • 0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546567d ago

    They literally have one more island to take on the straight and then they can shut it down... they captured 3 in a day i believe. No one to stop them.

    1

  • yungsoleimani8d ago

    houthi mog

    0

  • SIMOMEGA16h ago

    keep this pfp please

    0

  • yungsoleimani25d ago

    December 31 Yopp is free money, do i make the rules? No! I just collect the money man sorry not sorry

    2

  • IamBatman-25d ago

    yopp

    1

  • SIMOMEGA24d ago

    Nopp

    0

  • zthunderfury26d ago

    Not going to happen

    0

  • 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d26d ago

    I wish you had told me before I bought all those YES shares

    1

  • hyper-liquid-xyz29d ago

    I am an Pakistani ship! I went through the strait and there were not any mines...yet. I am scared once Iran gives the order, they could throw any random amount in there!

    1

  • Deterrance29d ago

    Houthis planning to seize Bab al-Mandeb Strait: Yemeni minister

    1

  • DontTrustMe1mo ago

    Nothing has changed btw. 🥱

    1

  • yungsoleimani1mo ago

    Sorry not sorry i dont make the rules i just collect the money man

    1

  • AmericaOnly1mo ago

    Shipping down from 42 to 25 since 2 weeks ago. Dec here we come.

    1

  • DontTrustMe1mo ago

    There might a tiny seasonal effect. Early-mid August is unlikely to be the busiest time of the year.

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Market opened May 6, 2026, 12:25 AM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:08 PM

Market data

24h volume

$39,278

1 week volume

$504,564

1 month volume

$1.2M

1 year volume

$3.2M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

82.1%

1h change

—

1 week change

-8.90%

1 month change

-8.65%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b
Question ID:
0x68d768354c034e07d780235ddeca559ae1ed6e63da0569d0367d397a75483d48

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 3.4%, No at 96.7% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$3.2M in total volume, with $39,278 in the last 24 hours and $164,012 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 1, 2026. The market opened on May 6, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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