US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

94.5%

24h change

-1.00%

Total volume

$2.4M

Liquidity

$166,803

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes5.5%

No94.5%

fidji1h ago
BS
0
hyper-liquid-xyz2mo ago
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮
1
redsyhgrey3mo ago
Yolft predicts no peace deal by June end, forget US obtaining uranium
0
sonnguyen953mo ago
who even Yes this
0
0x61a376E94E646a45E12F48Fd16be637f224B4bC1-17785815956663mo ago
hello
0
zthunderfury3mo ago
BrightStars sold 26,085 Yes for June 30 at 2.7¢ ($695)
1
BrightStars3mo ago
hey
3
Latt3mo ago
1:21 PM - Trump: I am not considering a covert operation to seize Iran uranium. There's no reason to get Iran nuclear dust, it's entombed.
0
lifeisbs3mo ago
you never know. Trump said he will unearthen the nuclear dust and he will not end the war until he gets it.
1
kevtp3mo ago
So if Iran ships the Uranium to China, and China agrees with the US it won't give it back to Iran unless the US violates the deal - does that count as the Uranium being "under US control" in the rules? Indirectly in a legal way it kinda is, just not physical. That likely outcome should be clarified by Polymarket or there should be some consensus how it would resolve
2
kevtp3mo ago
And the rules say "physical custody OR control" and "US territory or elsewhere" - so in a typical resolution dispute drama it could be argued, even if far fetched, that China holding it qualifies as legal control outside US territory
1
toutiege3mo ago
It will be shipped to China
4
zthunderfury3mo ago
So the US buys it from China or what?
0
something-know3mo ago
TheQuietRisk - mad ?
3
StillWater03mo ago
come on mojtaba just give Trump 1 miligram of uranium and we all will be happy
3
BrightStars3mo ago
Stop The Delay
1
studmuffin69693mo ago
no? i'm too lazy to figure out why.
2
0x51005639Eeb10384367A63693a185D67146D35dc-17731498264793mo ago
pulled this up on Ten poly on a whim and now I genuinely can't look away
2
studmuffin69693mo ago
fu
0
0x51005639Eeb10384367A63693a185D67146D35dc-17731498264793mo ago
??
0
iForgor3mo ago
Just go in an nip the uranium lmao
0
BrightStars3mo ago
not easy
0
Ziomancer3mo ago
I could do it
2
Kaiwennn3mo ago
I'll see what I can do
1
MEPP3mo ago
emergency alert ! [link removed]
0
PAULPAUL33mo ago
hmmmmm
1
vasidjey4mo ago
you should learn iranian military history if you think that US obtains uranium
0
GautengWolf4mo ago
take a hear here [link removed]
0
SARJIL4mo ago
no chance iran will let it do
0

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Apr 17, 2026, 3:45 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$72,554

1 week volume

$110,032

1 month volume

$224,815

1 year volume

$2.4M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

83.5%

1h change

—

1 week change

—

1 month change

-1.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x58998da8fa20593cf07618032acd580344a79279a8bcc3ed128b668d793c3d6f
Question ID:: 0xb88dd6b1eb92bb01160bec151ea17efe6ef1781697aada3d7bf0b15fd169441b

Frequently asked questions

What is the "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 5.5%, No at 94.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2.4M in total volume, with $72,554 in the last 24 hours and $166,803 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Apr 17, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.