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Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes probability

71.1%

24h change

+1.60%

Total volume

$72,816

Liquidity

$4,738

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1871.1%28.9%

Outcomes

Yes71.1%
No28.9%

Order book

Yes · 76 levels
BidsSize
  1. 70¢287
  2. 70¢200
  3. 70¢600
  4. 70¢100
  5. 68¢66
  6. 68¢100
  7. 68¢100
  8. 67¢220
AsksSize
  1. 72¢450
  2. 72¢53
  3. 74¢19
  4. 75¢255
  5. 75¢207
  6. 75¢512
  7. 75¢100
  8. 76¢194

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Market opened Feb 6, 2026, 2:57 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,276

1 week volume

$15,327

1 month volume

$43,028

1 year volume

$72,816

Spread

1.80%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

95.7%

1h change

+0.05%

1 week change

-9.20%

1 month change

+29.80%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x258cf80073b2deb3b08b53bd96715db3924458eb6d80ad670089cc639aa00260
Question ID:
0x7ac94d1c1826d98f4ccd8463e5a0950f9eb1d3ca0441aaba8d0b83dfaf25eb05

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 71.1%, No at 28.9% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$72,816 in total volume, with $3,276 in the last 24 hours and $4,738 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2028. The market opened on Feb 6, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.