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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Active · Ends Dec 31, 2027

Anthropic probability

93.8%

24h change

-0.15%

Total volume

$372,783

Liquidity

$47,351

Price history

AnthropicOpenAI
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1893.8%6.2%

Outcomes

Anthropic93.8%
OpenAI6.2%

Order book

Anthropic · 93 levels
BidsSize
  1. 94¢340
  2. 94¢200
  3. 94¢200
  4. 93¢500
  5. 93¢511
  6. 93¢1,650
  7. 93¢2,650
  8. 93¢1,635
AsksSize
  1. 94¢150
  2. 94¢650
  3. 94¢100
  4. 94¢3,707
  5. 94¢100
  6. 94¢200
  7. 95¢200
  8. 95¢370

  • mewmew13mo ago

    ngmi

    0

  • MRKATSS3mo ago

    Still bullish on OpenAI. 27% looks undervalued.

    3

  • MRKATSS3mo ago

    OpenIA jes

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jan 30, 2026, 9:34 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$2,333

1 week volume

$14,586

1 month volume

$81,312

1 year volume

$372,783

Spread

0.30%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

83.9%

1h change

—

1 week change

+0.30%

1 month change

-0.65%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xc289a877bc155123069739b21d690b3e8dc220b98f6ae3924468bbcbdfaf98dc
Question ID:
0xa65bd3e9e66ae1daecb6efbd4fc625e62be509ec72220ce8f84c6362f45999e2

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Anthropic at 93.8%, OpenAI at 6.2% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$372,783 in total volume, with $2,333 in the last 24 hours and $47,351 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 31, 2027. The market opened on Jan 30, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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